A quarterly time-series classifier based on a reduced-dimension generated rules method for identifying financial distress

Predicting financial distress has been and will remain an important and challenging issue. Many methods have been proposed to predict bankruptcies and detect financial crises, including conventional approaches and techniques involving artificial intelligence (AI). Financial distress information influences investor decisions, and investors depend on analysts’ opinions and subjective judgements in assessing such information, which sometimes results in investors making mistakes. In the light of the foregoing, this paper proposes a novel quarterly time series classifier, which reduces the sheer volume of high-dimensional data to be analysed and provides decision-makers with rules that can be used as a reference in assessing the financial situation of a company. This study employs the following six attribute selection methods to reduce the high-dimensional data: (1) the chi-square test, (2) information gain, (3) discriminant analysis, (4) logistic regression (LR) analysis, (5) support vector machine (SVM) and (6) the proposed Join method. After selecting attributes, this study utilises the rough set classifier to generate the rules of financial distress. To verify the proposed method, an empirically collected financial distress data-set is employed as the experimental sample and is compared with the decision tree, multilayer perceptron and SVM under Type I error, Type II error and accuracy criteria. Because financial distress data are quarterly time series data, this study conducts non-time series and time series (moving windows) experiments. The experimental results indicate that the LR and chi-square attribute selection combined with the rough set classifier outperform the listing methods under Type I, Type II error and accuracy criteria.     

“套餐＋自助”组合教学模式的构建

“套餐＋自助”组合教学模式的构建,旨在体现以学生为中心的教育理念,创造适合学生发展的学习环境,使每个学生都能自主选择学习内容和学习方式,力求最大化的满足学生个性化发展需求,有效提升学生信息技术的综合应用水平和综合实践能力.文章对“套餐＋自助”组合教学模式的需求进行了深入分析,提出了“套餐＋自助”组合教学模式的课程框架.并以经济管理专业计算机应用能力教学为例,对课程组成、组合学习套餐内容、自助学习模块内容、学分管理和教学方式等方面进行了细致的描述.     

区域旅游经济视域下内蒙古民族旅游高等教育思考

30多年来,内蒙古自治区的旅游业迅速发展,产业的发展需要高质量的旅游高等教育与其相适应,内蒙古作为民族省份、民族地区,尤其需要加强民族旅游高等专业人才的培养。目前,内蒙古旅游高等教育还存在着面面俱到,缺乏特色;深度不够,鲜见精品;理论过重,实践不足;泛化明显,本土化欠缺等问题,有必要对内蒙古民族旅游高等教育加以探析,寻求产业发展与高等教育契合之路。今后,一定要转变思想观念,加强民族旅游高等教育;适应市场需求,实施针对性的课堂教学;强化实习实训,寻求与旅游企业的合作。     

基于粗糙集理论的航材故障影响因素分析

对航材故障进行分析及数据挖掘,找出造成航材故障的因素。通过运用粗糙集理论对采集到的数据进行属性分析,对不必要的数据进行属性约简,从中得到影响航材故障发生的关键因素。     

Mechanisms,Bayesianism, and process tracing

ABSTRACT

This essay examines the role of mechanisms and Bayesian inference in process tracing. With respect to mechanisms, I argue that the core of process tracing with causal inference is the identification of mechanisms understood as intervening events. Events are different from standard intervening variables when used with process tracing, because events are treated as sets in which cases can have membership. With respect to Bayesian analysis, I concur with recent writings that suggest Bayesian inference is at the heart of process tracing. The Bayesian nature of process tracing explains why it is inappropriate to view qualitative research as suffering from a small-N problem and certain standard causal identification problems. More generally, the paper shows how the power of process tracing as a qualitative methodology depends on and grows from its set-theoretic underpinnings.     

When more is not better: Complementarities,costs and contingencies in stakeholder management

Instrumental stakeholder theory has largely emphasized the positive effects of investing in stakeholder cooperative relationships in an additive, linear fashion in the sense that the more investments the better. Yet investing in stakeholders can be very costly and the effects of these investments in firm performance are subject to complex internal complementarities and external contingencies. In this article we rely on set‐theoretic methods and a large international dataset of 1,060 multinational companies to explore theoretically and empirically some of the complementarities, costs and contingencies likely to arise in stakeholder management. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于偏序集DEA理论的中国奶牛养殖效率区域差异及优化研究

目的 通过设定精饲料数量、劳动力等5个投入指标和主产品产量、净利润2个产出指标,分别对我国各省大规模、中规模、小规模和散养4类养殖规模下的奶牛养殖效率及偏序关系进行测算,总结传统奶源带区域奶牛养殖效率发展特点,帮助无效率地区确定学习对象以实现效率优化改进。方法 文章运用DEA-CCR模型测算2009—2019年中国4类奶牛养殖规模下各地生产效率,利用基于偏序集理论的CCR模型测算相同养殖规模下各省区的偏序关系,并形成偏序关系图。结果 2009年以来我国奶牛养殖以发展大、中规模为主,到2019年两种规模有效率养殖地区占比均超过32%,且中规模养殖地区在高效养殖的稳定性方面表现更好。传统奶源带区域中,大城市郊区已无小规模和散养形式,其大、中规模养殖的效率在各区域中都表现优异;东北和内蒙古地区的小规模养殖和散养效率最高;地处中原的山西省、西北的新疆和甘肃以及南方的广西等地都是养殖效率表现突出的省区。结论 因奶源带区域内部各省区发展的同质性较低,无效率省区在提高投入—产出效率方面须更多地进行跨区域经验学习,具体优秀示范养殖省区有：大规模养殖下的新疆、甘肃、河北、北京、山西、湖北等;中规模养殖下的黑龙江、山西、天津、北京、吉林等;小规模养殖下的黑龙江、湖南;以及散养方式下的新疆、吉林、湖南、山西等。     

An interactive dynamic multi-objective programming model to support better land use planning

This study develops a dynamic multi-objective programming (DMOP) approach to handle problems of optimization under conditions of uncertainty typified by multiple goals and dynamic subsystems. The proposed approach seamlessly integrates multi-objective programming, fuzzy set theory, and system dynamics tools to conduct optimal land use planning in dynamic and complex environmental systems. Based on the DMOP approach, this study constructs an interactive dynamic multi-objective programming model, investigates the connection between land use and future urban development, and incorporates the preferences of decision makers using a compromise index. A case study from Taiwan shows that the proposed modeling framework can accommodate more complete information, allowing improvements to be made in strategic planning for land use.     

自由选择下属性同异操控对选择冲突影响研究

选择集的属性同异结构会影响消费者的感知,在选择集内加入属性趋同产品,会通过属性趋同效应和知觉聚焦效应影响消费者的选择。文章应用实验方法通过logistic回归分析,发现属性趋同产品加入选择集对消费者选择延迟的影响受到感知风险程度的调节。在高风险感知和低风险感知的情形下,属性趋同产品的加入对消费者延迟选择与否没有显著影响,而在中等感知风险的情形下,属性趋同产品的加入对消费者的延迟选择会产生显著影响。     

农民住房财产权抵押的实现路径及影响因素研究

研究目的:以全国33个宅基地制度改革试点地区为研究对象,探析农民住房财产权抵押贷款的实现路径和关键影响因素,为政策推广提供经验借鉴。研究方法:模糊集定性比较分析(fsQCA)。研究结果:农民住房财产权抵押的实现在不同地区均是多个不同条件共同作用引致的结果,具体可归纳为金融推动型、政府主导型、服务市场型3种路径;实际路径的形成和各地宅基地流转的市场基础及改革的历史探索紧密相关;其中,农村集体建设用地基准地价、流转范围是最具有普遍性的影响因素,抵押担保和“房地一体”登记之间则存在明显的替代关系。研究结论:农民住房财产权抵押的实现应从激活流转市场、因地制宜采取差异化措施、合理发挥政府和市场作用方面完善政策。